2008 Woodie Awards
Good days for democracy
Michael Willenborg
Issue date: 1/28/08 Section: Commentary
If this election season has taught us anything, it is that the impressions of those comprising the current crop of pundits bear no necessary resemblance to the reality of what will actually unfold. Leaving aside the fact that scarcely anyone (save former Bill Clinton adviser Dick Morris) was able to predict the meteoric rise of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, the predictions to which the conventional wisdom has given rise have consistently fallen wide of the mark.
In Iowa, we were told that the Democratic contest would be a nail-biter decided by as few as a thousand votes. When the media found itself instead faced with an Obama wave that left Hillary Clinton struggling to stay above water, reports of her coming defeat (by as much as 20 points) in New Hampshire were widespread. News surfaced that some of Clinton's closest confidants were urging her to exit the race, provided the drubbing that was her all but certain fate in New Hampshire actually came to fruition.
When the media was again outsmarted by the voters, people said that the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union had made victory for Obama in the Nevada caucuses a done deal. Once again the voters said otherwise, however, as the former first lady won by six points.
Analyses of the Republican contests fared little better. In the final days leading up to the Iowa caucuses, the general consensus held that a series of misstatements on foreign policy and a badly botched stunt regarding a negative ad would be the undoing of the evangelical wonder that was Mike Huckabee. Striking a contrarian chord once again, Iowans delivered the man from Hope a nine point victory.
In New Hampshire, voters brought Arizona Senator John McCain back from the political grave (after his support for comprehensive immigration reform nearly imperiled his candidacy in the summer). On the heels of his victory in the Granite State, pundits widely believed that independents (having little interest in a Democratic primary that was being stripped of its delegates) would come out in force to propel a resurgent McCain to the front of the field in Michigan. Instead, Mitt Romney prevailed by nine points.
All this goes to show that the only consistent trend in either party, thus far, has been voters doing as they please, rather than what the so-called "opinion makers" of the day tell them to do. Currently, we're being told that Huckabee's fifteen minutes of fame have ended, that Florida is a "do or die" state for each of the Republican candidates and that the Democratic contest is shaping up to be a contest between competing considerations of race and gender.
Whether any of these predictions will prove factual remains to be seen. What can hardly be doubted, however, is that an electorate even somewhat suspicious of media spin is very good for democracy.
In Iowa, we were told that the Democratic contest would be a nail-biter decided by as few as a thousand votes. When the media found itself instead faced with an Obama wave that left Hillary Clinton struggling to stay above water, reports of her coming defeat (by as much as 20 points) in New Hampshire were widespread. News surfaced that some of Clinton's closest confidants were urging her to exit the race, provided the drubbing that was her all but certain fate in New Hampshire actually came to fruition.
When the media was again outsmarted by the voters, people said that the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union had made victory for Obama in the Nevada caucuses a done deal. Once again the voters said otherwise, however, as the former first lady won by six points.
Analyses of the Republican contests fared little better. In the final days leading up to the Iowa caucuses, the general consensus held that a series of misstatements on foreign policy and a badly botched stunt regarding a negative ad would be the undoing of the evangelical wonder that was Mike Huckabee. Striking a contrarian chord once again, Iowans delivered the man from Hope a nine point victory.
In New Hampshire, voters brought Arizona Senator John McCain back from the political grave (after his support for comprehensive immigration reform nearly imperiled his candidacy in the summer). On the heels of his victory in the Granite State, pundits widely believed that independents (having little interest in a Democratic primary that was being stripped of its delegates) would come out in force to propel a resurgent McCain to the front of the field in Michigan. Instead, Mitt Romney prevailed by nine points.
All this goes to show that the only consistent trend in either party, thus far, has been voters doing as they please, rather than what the so-called "opinion makers" of the day tell them to do. Currently, we're being told that Huckabee's fifteen minutes of fame have ended, that Florida is a "do or die" state for each of the Republican candidates and that the Democratic contest is shaping up to be a contest between competing considerations of race and gender.
Whether any of these predictions will prove factual remains to be seen. What can hardly be doubted, however, is that an electorate even somewhat suspicious of media spin is very good for democracy.
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